EUR/USD Forecast: The Euro Reaches Resistance Level Once Again

The euro gained ground again on Monday, although resistance remains just around the 1.06 level. The 1.06 level remains critical, and as a consequence, we are expected to fade in this general range. This is particularly true given that the 50-day EMA is also exactly here, so some technicality enters the picture.

Interest rates in the United States continue to rise, which makes the US dollar much more appealing. I am more than happy to short this market on a breakdown below the bottom of the Monday session, however, I know it will most likely be choppy. I'm not anticipating any clear movements, but that's not unusual for the EUR/USD pair since that's how it usually performs.

If we break down below 1.05, the market might lose another 100 points, but we need to see some momentum to make this happen. Finally, if we break below that level, the 1.04 level may be tough to break through since it is a “double bottom.” If we break through that double bottom, we might see a move down to 1.02, and perhaps parity, which is my objective for the end of the summer.

If we do break through the 50-day EMA, the market is expected to go to the 1.08 level. The 1.08 level has been imported a few times, and I won't be persuaded of the double bottom until we break over it. You could make a case for a trend reversal at that point, but I believe it's too early to predict that sort of move. The interest rate disparity favors the US dollar, notwithstanding the European Central Bank's intention to tighten a little. When it comes to monetary policy tightening, the Federal Reserve will continue to outstrip the ECB. As a result, the longer-term tendency should persist.

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