U.S. Employment Data Delayed, Gold Outlook Turns Uncertain

The U.S. January Nonfarm Payrolls report, originally scheduled for release this Friday (February 6), along with todays Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), has been officially delayed. Due to a “technical government shutdown,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics is unable to publish the data on schedule, pushing markets into a critical vacuum of macroeconomic indicators.

Impact on Gold:

With the loss of Nonfarm Payrolls as a key policy signal, markets are likely to rely more heavily on Federal Reserve officials rhetoric and technical indicators in the near term. Heightened uncertainty typically favors safe-haven assets, suggesting that gold may maintain a range-bound but resilient upward bias ahead of the delayed data release.

Structural Risk: Employment Data May Be Systematically Overstated

Market focus has shifted from “how many jobs were added in January” to “how much employment was overstated last year.” Major institutions including Barclays and Citi have recently issued warnings on potential data distortions.

• Scale of Revisions:

• Total U.S. employment for 2025 could face downward revisions of approximately 1 million jobs, implying that average monthly job gains over the past year were overstated by 80,000 to 90,000.

• On-the-Ground Reality:

• Large-scale layoffs at companies such as Amazon and UPS, combined with a declining JOLTS hiring rate, suggest that actual labor market weakness may be significantly more severe than official statistics currently indicate.

• Implications for Gold:

• Once markets acknowledge that perceived “labor market resilience” in 2025 was largely a statistical illusion, the Federal Reserve‘s policy focus may be forced to shift more decisively toward employment protection. Strengthening rate-cut expectations under this scenario would serve as a core medium- to long-term driver for higher gold prices.

Gold Trading Strategy: Key Takeaways

Against the dual backdrop of missing data and downward revision risks, gold’s underlying logic remains straightforward:

• Safe-Haven Support:

• Government shutdown risks have increased political uncertainty. As a traditional hedge, golds downside appears limited.

• Repricing the Framework:

• Markets are beginning to price in labor market downside risks. Should revised data later confirm substantial job losses, gold could break above current resistance levels.

• Technical Monitoring:

• In a week without Nonfarm Payrolls, greater attention should be paid to alternative indicators such as initial jobless claims.

Conclusion:

Do not be misled by the temporary “data blackout.” The underlying employment downtrend is strengthening. As long as the thesis of systematically overstated employment holds, the structural foundation of golds bull market remains intact.

• Gold Price Outlook



• Macro Catalyst:

• Former President Trump has nominated hawkish figure Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, prompting markets to sharply revise rate-cut expectations. At the same time, the CME significantly raised margin requirements, triggering aggressive long liquidation and a cascade of forced selling.

• Price Action:

• Gold is currently consolidating within a low-level recovery range of 4,750–4,850. Although prices rebounded swiftly from 4,404, the 4,811 level remains below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, leaving medium-term momentum firmly in bearish territory.

• Technical Indicators:

• RSI has rebounded from deeply oversold conditions below 20 to around 40, but MACD remains in a downward bearish crossover. This suggests the current move resembles a “dead cat bounce” rather than a genuine trend reversal.

• Immediate Resistance: 4,855–4,885

• This zone marks today‘s highs and the area where yesterday’s rebound stalled. Failure to break above this level significantly increases pullback risk.

• Major Resistance: 5,010

• Former support has now become a “ceiling.” Unless gold can reclaim the psychological 5,000 level, downside risks persist.

• Downside Support (Defensive Zones):

• First Support: 4,746. A break below would signal fading rebound momentum.

• Critical Line: 4,360–4,404. This marks the floor of the recent sharp sell-off. A second breakdown would open the door toward the 4,000 level.

• Risk Disclosure

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