DBG Markets: Market Report for Feb 2, 2026

DBG Weekly Outlook: Central Bank Super-Week and the “Warsh” Re-Pricing

Key Data Focus: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) & ISM PMI

Apart from the new Fed chair appointment, which can impact the market in the near future, the focus this week will likely fall on the “Tier 1” data releases that will determine if the Dollars rebound has sustainable legs.

· Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday, Feb 6): After a soft December (+50k), the consensus is for 70,000 jobs to be added in January, with the Unemployment Rate holding steady at 4.4%.

· ISM PMIs (Manufacturing - Monday; Services - Wednesday):

o Manufacturing: Focus is on whether it can climb back toward 50.0 (expansion territory).

o Services: As the backbone of the US economy, any weakness here would immediately reignite “recession” fears and cap the Dollars recovery.

Outlook for US Dollar

USD Index, H4 Chart

The US Dollar has rebounded from the 96.00 level, as covered earlier, and is now retesting the 97.00 handle. While the broad downtrend remains intact, the strength of this rebound suggests the Dollar may undergo a period of consolidation this week.

USD Index, H2 Chart

Over the near-term move, the recent rebound suggests the Dollar has entered a phase of strong momentum. Technically, if the 96.60 near-term support is able to hold, it could validate a short-term bullish reversal in the US Dollar, leading to further upside.

Outlook: If this weeks data suggests a resilient US economy and further pushes back cut expectations, the Dollar may regain its bullish momentum and potentially break above the 97.0 – 97.5 resistance zone.

Gold Market Outlook: Currently in “Falling Knife” Mode

Following last week's historic volatility, Gold has entered a new “tense correction” phase. After briefly finding support near the $5,000 psychological floor, prices failed to hold their ground and have accelerated toward the $4,600 level. Profit-taking continues to pour out as buyers await fresh catalysts and recalibrate the asset's fair value.

XAUUSD, H4 Chart

The short-term bullish trend has officially broken. The decisive drop below $5,100 triggered a massive wave of stop-loss selling, shifting Gold into a high-velocity “falling knife” mode.

Technically, the structure has been severely damaged. Major support levels are thin until the $4,600 – $4,500 range. If the current sell-off persists, bears will likely target the 4,630 level or even the 4,550 structural support.

XAUUSD, H1 Chart

In the near-term outlook, $5,000 has transitioned from a floor to major overhead resistance, which is likely to cap any relief rallies. Meanwhile, the 4,630–4,550 zone remains the next primary target. This will be a critical area for bulls to attempt to establish a new support base. Monitoring price action in this zone is essential to determine if Gold can finally form a durable bottom.

Trading Strategy & Key Levels

Do not blindly “catch a falling knife” at current levels. Wait for a clear bottoming formation to be established within the 4,630 – 4,550 zone on the daily chart before considering long positions.

Key Levels to Watch:

· $5,000: Major Resistance (The “Must-Break” level for a full bullish recovery).

· $4,800 – $4,880: Short-term technical pivot.

· $4,550 – $4,630: Major Support (Watch for potential bottoming signs here).

Core Weekly Themes

· The “Warsh” Premium: The USD is no longer just trading on data; it is reclaiming its “Governance Premium.” By anchoring the Fed's future to a known hawk, the floor for the Dollar has effectively moved higher, while the “politicization” discount has vanished.

· Golds Search for Value: The era of $5,500 Gold has faced a violent correction. We are now in a “Discovery Phase” where the market is testing the $4,550 – $4,630 zone to see if the long-term bullish narrative can survive this de-leveraging event.

· Central Bank Divergence: While the Fed waits for June, the RBA is the lone hawk, the BoE is a house divided, and the ECB is a neutral observer. This divergence makes the AUD and GBP the primary vehicles for playing against (or with) the resurgent Dollar.