ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Holds $4,055 as Hormuz Deadline Nears

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on August 3 (Monday), spot gold briefly rose to around USD 4,082 per ounce in early trading, before retreating to near USD 4,020. It finally closed at USD 4,055.34 per ounce, down 0.22%. August gold futures settled at USD 4,090.50, down 0.4%.

On August 4 (Tuesday) during early Asian trading, spot gold moved in a narrow range around USD 4,050 per ounce. Markets continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, while US June JOLTS job openings will be released later today.

Global Headlines

Trump Calls Irans Last Chance

Trump said US-Iran talks are ongoing, covering the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran‘s nuclear program. He called this Iran’s “last chance to sign a good document,” adding that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and other countries also support the talks. Iran said its current discussions with Oman only cover Strait of Hormuz security and navigation arrangements.

Trump Outlines Two-Stage Iran Talks

Trump said negotiations with Iran will move in two stages. The first stage focuses on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while the second stage covers denuclearization. He said the US position on Irans nuclear issue remains firm and that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. On the Strait, Trump said it could reopen by tomorrow at the latest.

FED September Hike Odds Rise

According to CME FEDWatch data, markets price a 32.8% probability that the FED keeps rates unchanged in September, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike stands at 67.2%. By December, the probability of no change is 14.2%, the chance of a 25bp hike is 44%, and the probability of at least 50bp in hikes is 41.8%.

Japan May Intervene In FX

Bank of Japan money-market data showed that Japanese authorities may have used about USD 36.58 billion last Friday to support the yen. The BOJs estimate of next-day money-market conditions showed net fund outflows of JPY 11.4 trillion, far above broker forecasts. Markets viewed this as a signal of official intervention.

Citadel Says Equity Support Holds

Citadel Securities said the forces supporting new highs in US equities remain solid, even after retail speculative trading cooled. Strategy head Scott Rubner said the market is shifting from flow-driven momentum toward earnings, corporate demand, and the macro backdrop. Data showed leveraged ETF assets fell 28% to USD 154 billion.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

Spot gold remains below a key turning point, with 4,245 acting as the main resistance level. If prices regain and hold above 4,245, upside potential may open further, with resistance levels at 4,385 and 4,425.

If gold stays below 4,245, support at 4,170 and 4,110 will remain in focus. Overall, gold is still moving repeatedly within the USD 4,000 to USD 4,200 range, and a clearer direction still requires a confirmed breakout.

RSI is moving higher, showing early signs of short-term momentum recovery. However, gold has not yet reclaimed 4,245, so the sustainability of any rebound still requires confirmation.

Markets are currently pricing US-Iran negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz situation, US JOLTS data, and rising FED rate-hike expectations. Gold may continue to trade in a volatile range in the short term.

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