Markets Await Key U.S. Economic Data: Can the Oil Rebound Continue as Gold Enters a Critical Decisio

Overview

On August 4, global commodity markets entered a wait-and-see mode, with investors adopting a noticeably more cautious approach.

Following the sharp volatility seen in the previous trading session, international crude oil prices staged a technical rebound. However, overall market sentiment continues to be influenced by multiple factors, including developments in the Middle East, expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy, and the outlook for global economic growth.

Meanwhile, gold continues to trade within a consolidation range as investors await upcoming U.S. economic data and further comments from Federal Reserve officials for fresh market direction.

I. Crude Oil: A Technical Rebound Does Not Signal a Trend Reversal

International crude oil prices recovered after recent losses, mainly supported by short covering and persistent uncertainty surrounding the Middle East.

Although markets remain cautiously optimistic about improving relations between the United States and Iran, security risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping routes remain unresolved. Any disruption to global energy transportation could quickly trigger another sharp move higher in oil prices.

At the same time, OPEC+ has already begun implementing its production increase plan. Combined with expectations of slower global economic growth, which could weaken crude oil demand, the market continues to face the dual pressure of rising supply and slowing demand.

Market View

In the short term, the recent rebound appears to be more of a technical recovery than the beginning of a new bullish trend. Future price direction will largely depend on whether the Middle East situation deteriorates further and whether global economic data improve expectations for energy demand.

II. Gold: The U.S. Dollar and Interest Rate Expectations Will Determine the Next Move

Although gold has failed to break above its recent highs, downside pressure has also remained relatively limited, suggesting that safe-haven demand continues to provide support.

At present, the primary driver of gold is no longer geopolitical risk itself, but rather market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy path.

• If this week's U.S. employment and economic data come in weaker than expected, expectations for future rate cuts are likely to increase, potentially weakening the U.S. dollar and providing fresh support for gold.

• Conversely, stronger-than-expected economic data could push both the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields higher, keeping gold trapped in its current consolidation range.

Market View

Gold is currently at a critical decision point. Short-term price action will be driven primarily by U.S. macroeconomic data, while longer-term support is expected to remain intact due to ongoing safe-haven demand and continued gold purchases by central banks around the world.

III. Industrial Metals: Waiting for Demand to Recover

Industrial metals, led by copper, continue to trade within a relatively narrow range.

Long-term demand continues to be supported by growth in Artificial Intelligence (AI), renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and global power grid modernization. However, in the short term, markets remain focused on China's manufacturing recovery and the economic outlook for both the United States and Europe.

Should global manufacturing data continue to improve, industrial metals could attract renewed investment inflows. Otherwise, prices are likely to remain range-bound.

IV. Market Focus Has Shifted from Geopolitics to Economic Data

One of the most significant changes in recent weeks is that investors have gradually reduced their sensitivity to geopolitical headlines and shifted their attention back toward U.S. economic data and monetary policy expectations.

Over the coming days, markets will closely monitor:

• U.S. employment data

• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

• Speeches from Federal Reserve officials

• Developments in the Middle East

• Progress of OPEC+ production increases

These factors will collectively determine the next directional move for gold, crude oil, and industrial metals.

Today's Key Takeaway

Global commodity markets are entering a new pricing phase.

Although crude oil has rebounded on geopolitical uncertainty and technical buying, expectations for higher supply and slowing demand continue to limit further upside. Gold, meanwhile, has entered a critical policy-driven window, with its short-term direction expected to depend primarily on the U.S. dollar and interest rate expectations.

One-Sentence SummaryMarkets are gradually shifting from trading geopolitical risks to trading economic data. Over the coming days, U.S. employment figures, the U.S. dollar, and expectations for Federal Reserve policy will become the key drivers of gold, crude oil, and industrial metals.