The May jobs report will be released Friday. Here's what to expect

The stronger-than-expected start this year for job creation could be in for a reality check when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the May nonfarm payrolls report Friday.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the employment rolls to show that just 80,000 jobs were added during the month, which would mark a notch step down from the average of 150,000 over the prior two months, including 115,000 in April.

Moreover, some prominent Wall Street voices think the month could feature some catch-up for a labor market that was teetering at this time last year, with risks to the downside for the headline number.

“We're continuing to hear and see the low-hire, low-fire sentiment, which is that if you have a job, it's OK right now,” said Laura Ullrich, director of economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab. “People are continuing this kind of job-hugging trend. But if you're looking for a job, it's a very hard time to find a job because hires are so low.”

Ullrich added that she “wouldn't be surprised” if the May number comes in at or below consensus. BLS data earlier this week showed a surprise jump in job openings for April, but the level of those quitting their jobs is at its lowest since August 2020, during the pandemic era. The consensus sees the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.

“From a macro point of view, we're going to see stagnation, because if people aren't leaving jobs and they're not creating new jobs, it's just a quite stagnant market,” she said.