Abstract：No, we are not kidding! The rupee has indeed hit this low, from 90 to 95 against the US dollar, the fastest in nearly a decade, highlighting the slump due to rising crude oil prices and global uncertainty from the series of adverse events related to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. It just took five months for the rupee to weaken from 90 to 95, the sharpest five-point depreciation since the 2013 taper tantrum. During this period, the rupee declined from 60 to 65 within a month amid concerns over India’s current account deficit and large capital outflows.
No, we are not kidding! The rupee has indeed hit this low, from 90 to 95 against the US dollar, the fastest in nearly a decade, highlighting the slump due to rising crude oil prices and global uncertainty from the series of adverse events related to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. It just took five months for the rupee to weaken from 90 to 95, the sharpest five-point depreciation since the 2013 taper tantrum. During this period, the rupee declined from 60 to 65 within a month amid concerns over Indias current account deficit and large capital outflows.
The Pattern of Rupees Decline of Late
The rupee has been declining constantly over the last few years. Below, we have segregated the level of fall across months.
- Decline from 85 to 90 - 14 Months
- Decline from 80 to 85 - 28 Months
- Decline from 75 to 80 - 31 months
The latest fall in the rupees value against the USD follows the sharp jump in global crude oil prices due to the ongoing West-Asia conflict.
The rupee averaged 90.98 per dollar in February and weakened sharply to 95.20 by the end of May 2026 despite Indias crude basket climbing past $100 a barrel for the third consecutive month.
The Rupees Journey from 65 to 75
The rupee, after touching around 65 in 2018, took 61 months to decline further to 70. From 70 to 75, the decline happened in 20 months.
The Impact of Rapid Fall in the Rupee‘s Value on India’s Economy
The rapid fall leads to elevated import inflation risks, especially through increased oil prices. With a weaker currency, the cost of crude oil, electronics imports, edible oils and fertilizers grows substantially, widening the countrys fiscal deficit.
How Much Forex Reserves Do India Have Now?
According to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country currently holds forex reserves worth $690 billion, more than double the amount it had during the 2013 taper tantrum period. During that time, India had a little less than $300 billion as forex reserves.
Conclusion
The rupee‘s rapid fall from 90 to 95 against the US dollar reflects the growing pressure on emerging-market currencies amid rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions in West Asia, and global economic uncertainty. While the pace of depreciation has become the fastest in nearly a decade, India’s macroeconomic position today remains relatively stronger than during the 2013 taper tantrum period due to significantly higher forex reserves and improved financial stability measures.
However, if crude oil prices remain elevated and global risk sentiment continues to deteriorate, the rupee may stay under pressure in the coming months. Market participants will now closely watch the Reserve Bank of Indias intervention strategy, foreign investment flows, and developments in global energy markets to assess the future direction of the Indian currency.
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2026-05-20
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