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Payroll Roulette: Dollar and Gold Brace for High-Stakes NFP Report
Abstract：Market volatility spikes as traders brace for a highly uncertain NFP report, with economist forecasts diverging wildly between 40k and 125k jobs added.
Markets have entered a defensive crouch ahead of Friday‘s US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with uncertainty levels reaching a fever pitch. Unlike typical months, December’s data features a massive divergence expectations, creating a high-risk environment for the USD and Gold (XAU/USD).
A Fractured Consensus
The whisper numbers on Wall Street are unusually scattered. While the median forecast sits around 60,000 jobs added, the range of estimates stretches from a recessionary 40,000 to a robust 125,000.
JP Morgan suggests the 'Goldilocks' zone—data soft enough to allow rate cuts but strong enough to avoid recession—is the markets preferred outcome.
Asset Classes at the Brink
Gold (XAU/USD) prices are consolidating near $4,470, trapped between technical selling from a $6.8 billion index rebalancing and geopolitical support from Venezuela and Ukraine.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rallied to test the 99.00 handle. A soft NFP number could puncture this rally, while a hot number forces the Fed to remain restrictive.
Technicals
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
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