Abstract：XAU/USD retreated during Wednesday's European session after touching a historic all-time high of $4,525.70 per ounce. The precious metal faced profit-taking ahead of the Christmas holiday liquidity drain, compounded by unexpectedly robust US economic data that challenged the narrative of an imminent slowdown.
XAU/USD retreated during Wednesday's European session after touching a historic all-time high of $4,525.70 per ounce. The precious metal faced profit-taking ahead of the Christmas holiday liquidity drain, compounded by unexpectedly robust US economic data that challenged the narrative of an imminent slowdown.
Strong GDP vs. Fed Cut Bets
The primary catalyst for the correction was the US Bureau of Economic Analysis report showing Q3 GDP grew at an annualized 4.3%, significantly outpacing the 3.3% market forecast and the previous quarter's 3.8%. This data initially boosted the US Dollar and yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
However, downside remains limited by entrenched expectations of monetary easing. Despite the growth surprise, markets continue to price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven by cooling inflation and softening labor metrics. Additionally, comments from the White House suggesting the next Fed Chair will be “significantly” supportive of rate cuts have kept the Dollar Index (DXY) near recent lows of 97.75.
Technical & Geopolitical Outlook
Technically, gold remains in a strong uptrend but faces immediate risks.
- RSI Warning: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) breached 80, signalling overbought conditions that necessitate consolidation.
- Key Levels: Support is seen at $4,337, while a sustained break above $4,500 targets the $4,600 psychological barrier.
Geopolitical premiums also continue to provide a floor for prices. Tensions involving Venezuela's shipping criminalization laws and simmering risks in the Middle East—specifically regarding Iran's potential involvement in the Lebanon theater—ensure that safe-haven demand remains dormant but readily triggerable.
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