Copper Smashes $12,000 Barrier in Commodity Super-Cycle Surge

Copper prices on the LME have made history, breaching the $12,000 per ton mark for the first time, as a structural supply deficit collides with voracious demand from the AI and green energy sectors. The red metal has surged over 35% this year, marking its best performance since 2009.

The Supply Shock

The rally is underpinned by severe disruptions at major mines in Chile, Indonesia, and the DRC, leading analysts to warn of the worst supply squeeze in two decades. Deutsche Bank estimates a 3% drop in output from top miners this year. Concurrently, traders are front-running potential US tariffs by stockpiling metal, exacerbating shortages in ex-US markets.

AI Power Demand

Beyond traditional industrial use, the “AI narrative” is reshaping Copper fundamentals. The massive power infrastructure required for data centers is copper-intensive, creating a new, inelastic layer of demand. Citi analysts project prices could test $15,000 in a bull case scenario, driven by looser financial conditions in 2026 and the chronic underinvestment in new mine capacity.