Gold Prices Fall by INR 39,300 in the Last Week? What's Next Week's Outlook?

June 2025 has been a rollercoaster ride for gold across spot markets in India. During this month, gold prices in India went past the 1-lakh mark for the first time, adding further momentum to the consistent rally the yellow metal witnessed over the last five years. The prices doubled during this period.

A lot worked for upward movement in gold prices. The economic jolt caused by COVID and the uncertainty that prevailed owing to the geopolitical wars between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Iran made sure the gold prices continued to breach barriers.

However, as Iran and Israel decided to implement a ceasefire, the gold price rally converted into a decline last week in India. The past week saw gold prices falling by as much as INR 39,300 per 100 grams across 24 Karat.

So, as we look forward to the first week of July 2025, we have prepared an outlook for the gold price in India. Check out where gold prices are heading.

The Gold Price Trend for the Last 10 Days in India

The gold rate in India has declined five times from June 23-28, 2025, following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. However, gold prices remained muted on June 26.

It started with a price fall of INR 600 on June 23, followed by the steepest crash of INR 14,700 a day later as Israel and Iran fully implemented a ceasefire. Following the trend, the gold prices fell by another INR 2,700, INR 9,300 and INR 6,000 on June 25, June 27 and June 28, respectively.

MCX gold price declined for two weeks in a row, according to a weekly report from SMC Global Securities. The gold price in India at MCX for the August 2025 expiry remained INR 95,524 per 10 grams.

Silver prices, on the other hand, declined slower over the last six days. While June 24 and 25 saw silver prices per kilogram declining by iNR 1,000 each, June 27 witnessed a drop of INR 100.

So, What‘s the Next Week’s Outlook for the Gold Price in India?

SMC Global Securities stated in the report that while gold prices in India fell by more than 3%, silver remained largely flat. The reason for the mixed investment sentiment is attributable to the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting that would potentially lead to rate cuts. US President Donald Trump may declare the nominee for Fed Chair in September or October, potentially choosing someone who would work towards easier monetary policy. At the same time, Fed Chair Powell hinted that no new tariffs are causing disinflation, raising the possibilities for multiple rate cuts in the Federal Reserve Meeting if they are delayed beyond the July 9 deadline.

The SMC report further added that the US GDP rate was updated to demonstrate a contraction of 0.5% in the second quarter, encouraging a more dovish policy stance. Easing Middle East conflicts weighed on the demand for gold and silver. Additionally, Trump has been nudging Powell to accelerate interest rate cuts despite the Fed Chair announcing that the central bank will closely observe the impact of tariff policies on inflation before taking the call. Markets are, however, expecting the US Federal Reserve Meeting to declare a 50 basis point cut by the end of 2025.

Gold on COMEX reached a peak of around $3,480 and declined afterward. It might be around $3,280. However, a clear breach would mean the prices would fall to $3,200. Silver would remain positive with a few corrections over the next week. MCX gold price may be around INR 93,800-98,200. On the other hand, silver might trade within INR 1,00,000-1,10,000.