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GBP/USD Price Analysis: Resistance at 1.2440-45, bearish outlook remains.
Abstract：GBP/USD remains subdued within a two-week bearish channel, facing resistance at a crucial confluence of key moving averages. The relative strength index (RSI) holds steady and the MACD signal is bullish, providing some respite for GBP bears. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and previous monthly low act as attractive levels for short positions.
In early Monday's Asian session, GBP/USD retreated to 1.2345, losing momentum after a rebound from the two-month low seen the previous day. As a result, GBP/USD remains within the descending channel formed two weeks ago.
It's worth noting that if policymakers in Congress approve a temporary debt agreement, the latest preliminary deal on the US debt ceiling extension could lead to a pullback in the recent gains of the US dollar. However, Monday's holiday in the US and UK, along with recent dissatisfaction expressed by both Democrats and Republicans regarding the agreement, may test the bullish sentiment for the British pound.
Furthermore, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) nearing the 50.0 level and a bullish MACD signal challenging the bearish sentiment, the downside target for GBP/USD is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the March to early May uptrend, currently around 1.2380.
Afterward, the key resistance near the upper channel at 1.2400, if breached, would negate the bearish bias and attract buyers for the British pound.
However, the convergence of the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) and the 100-period EMA around 1.2440-45 poses strong resistance for GBP/USD buyers, and a breakout above this level would shift the market sentiment back in favor of the bulls.
Additionally, the recent swing low near 1.2300 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.2295 provide support and limit the downside potential for GBP/USD. The lower boundary of the mentioned channel at 1.2285 also acts as a key short-term support level.
Overall, GBP/USD may experience a corrective bounce, but the bearish trend remains intact until a breakout above the 1.2440-45 resistance zone.
GBP/USD: 4-hour chart
Trend: Expected to further decline.
Key Technical Levels
GBP/USD
Overview
Latest Price: 1.2343
Today's Intraday Change: -0.0005
Today's Intraday Change %: -0.04
Today's Opening Price: 1.2348
Trend
20-day Moving Average: 1.249
50-day Moving Average: 1.2435
100-day Moving Average: 1.2288
200-day Moving Average: 1.1978
Levels
Previous Day High: 1.2395
Previous Day Low: 1.2311
Last Week High: 1.2472
Last Week Low: 1.2308
Last Month High: 1.2584
Last Month Low: 1.2275
Daily Chart 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level: 1.2363
Daily Chart 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level: 1.2343
Daily Chart Pivot Support 1: 1.2307
Daily Chart Pivot Support 2: 1.2267
Daily Chart Pivot Support 3: 1.2223
Daily Chart Pivot Resistance 1: 1.2391
Daily Chart Pivot Resistance 2: 1.2435
Daily Chart Pivot Resistance 3: 1.2476
*The provided information is for reference purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or investment recommendation.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
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