Technical Outlook for the Shanghai Composite Index: Is the Rally Losing Steam?

Chinese shares have encountered significant resistance, suggesting that the embryonic surge may be coming to an end.

The Shanghai Composite Index has encountered convergent opposition at the December high of 3226, as well as the 200-day and 89-week moving averages. Despite the 13% increase since October, the 14-week Relative Strength Index has yet to reach over 60, which is usually an indication of strong upward momentum. Furthermore, during the last rise in July, the index went down from around the shorter moving average and comparable RSI levels.

Shanghai Composite Index Weekly Chart

For the medium-term bearish pressure to diminish, the index must convincingly clear both moving averages. Last year's stay above critical support on the 200-month moving average is a positive indication for bulls. However, a stop in the decline around a cushion is insufficient; for any comeback to sustain, the index must break strong obstacles on the upside.

Shanghai Composite Index Monthly Chart

Any breakout over 3225-3300 might pave the road to the July high of 3425. Any break above 3425 would be a positive indicator, triggering a big double bottom (the April and October 2022 lows), indicating a possible rally above 4000 in the next months. On the downside, the index's fledgling comeback is expected to continue as long as it remains above immediate support at the December low of 3032. Any breach there would signal the reversal of the short-term rising pressure.

After statistics published this morning exceeded forecasts, Chinese shares were generally unfazed, but economic growth slowed sharply last year due to tight COVID regulations and a slump in the housing market. The reopening of China's borders earlier this month has fueled optimism for an economic recovery this year. However, the sudden termination of its COVID limitations and the possibility for infection surges indicate that the growth trajectory may be rocky.

Keep an eye out for more market trading analysis.

You can install the WikiFX App on your phone or tablet by using the link below, or by going to the App Store or Google Play Store.

Download link: https://www.wikifx.com/en/download.html